Newsletter March 2025
Long term power fundamental prices
Let’s start with news on our power fundamental model (KyPF), in which we have included 2024 data. We used this opportunity to perform again a comprehensive backtest spanning 2017 to 2024, which resulted in:
- High Accuracy: Our updated approach consistently delivers strong alignment with actual market data, with Mean Average Errors (computed monthly) below 5% for our main markets (DE, NL, FR, GB) in 2024.
- Realistic Duck Curves: We’re especially proud that our model’s duck curves across multiple regions closely mirror real-world behavior, showcasing KyPF’s ability to capture market dynamics.
- Capture Rates: We achieved a close fit between actual and model capture rates for solar and wind generation, allowing our clients to have even greater confidence in our capture rate forecasts
These improvements underscore our commitment to providing accurate power market analytics and forecasts for e.g. renewables (PPAs), battery valuations, conventional generation and interconnection capacities. Interested in the full backtesting report or curious about how KyPF can enhance your energy strategies? Reach out to info@kyos.com.
New reports: PPA and Energy Storage
From our latest PPA report: Strong fundamentals together with investment fund positions triggered a rally of EUA prices that marked a 15% increase. European gas storage levels continued that deplete at a fast pace, pushing up gas prices by 8%. Forward electricity prices followed the move with frontyear prices in Germany surging by 11% and Cal-26 Dutch prices rising by 8%. Consequently, we revised our 10-yr renewable captured price forecast upwards across North-Western European markets. This upward momentum shall not hide another reality: occurrences of negatively priced hours nearly doubled in most European markets last year.
We also updated the Energy storage report: Compared to the 2025 assessment, the battery revenue valuations for NL, BE, and DE in the day-ahead and intraday markets have increased, as higher spreads are projected for 2026. ES and GB continue to be ranked lower compared to the CWE markets (NL, BE, and DE). This regional spread increased further for our 2026 assessment, further positioning CWE as attractive battery markets.
Previously held webinar: Polish BESS Market
In case you missed our webinar on the Polish Energy storage market, find the slide deck here. Please contact us at info@kyos.com if you wish to receive the link to the recording. In this webinar, we also introduced our new country report on Poland – let us know if you want to know more about this.
Until next month!
Kind regards,
Your KYOS team: Cyriel, Marieke, Hans, Simon and Ewout
PS The pictures underneath were taken at E-World last month. We were absolutely thrilled to see so many of you. Thank you for making an appointment or stepping by to meet us!
